Let's take a look at the pitching rotation for the AL Division Series, which is best of 5.
1st, a look at the stats for the 5 primary starters most of the season:
| Pitcher | IP | W | L | ERA | WHIP | K's | QS |
| James Shields | 215.0 | 14 | 8 | 3.56 | 1.15 | 160 | 22 |
| Andy Sonnanstine | 193.1 | 13 | 9 | 4.38 | 1.29 | 124 | 13 |
| Matt Garza | 184.2 | 11 | 9 | 3.70 | 1.24 | 128 | 15 |
| Edwin Jackson | 183.1 | 14 | 11 | 4.42 | 1.51 | 108 | 15 |
| Scott Kazmir | 152.1 | 12 | 8 | 3.49 | 1.27 | 166 | 13 |
I think probably everyone agrees that Shields, Garza and Kazmir will be in the rotation. As I mentioned in yesterday's post Kazmir hasn't looked right for a little while throwing so many pitches early in the games, but he deserves to be there. If Maddon goes with a 4 man rotation, which I think he probably will, the 4th spot comes down to two pitchers with very similar stats, Sonnanstine and Jackson. Jackson has 1 more win, but Sonnanstine has 2 fewer losses. Jackson's ERA is only .04 more than Sonnanstines, so that's really a wash. Interesting that Jackson has 2 more quality starts, but Sonnastine walks fewer than Jackson (showing in the much lower WHIP for Sonnanstine). After that, you have to look at the intangibles. Jackson has always been a little shaky. When he's on, he's very good, but when he's not... well, let's no go there! I think Jackson has better stuff, a more lively fastball, better breaking pitches, but less control. I am just going on a gut call here, but I think Jackson might be the man. I saw him pitch in a late season game against the Twins and he pitched into the 8th inning. In that inning, the crowd was pumped up and really behind him. For the last batter he faced that inning, he pumped 3 consecutive fastballs at 96, 97 and 98 MPH. I think with the atmosphere in the Trop (if that's where he gets to pitch), Jackson could really do some damage against a free swinging team like the White Sox. If it's the Twins, they are a bit more disciplined.
There you have it, lots of analysis of stats and I go with a gut call for Jackson.
What do you think? Let me know in the comments.
Go Rays!
- Steve
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