Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Well, this is a sobering statistic

The above graph and related article was posted on the blog boingboing. Click here for a link to the actual story and support the site. They have some interesting postings.

This graph depicts the S&P's annual returns, plotted by the frequency of occurance in ranges such as 0-10%, 11-20%, etc. As one would expect, the majority of the years fall into the 0-10% range. There were only 5 years each that fell into the 41-50% and 51-60% bracket.

Now, for the sobering statistic, until 2008, there was only 1 year each in the -31 - 40% and -41-50% columns. There was only 1 year in history with a loss greater than 50%. 2008 is currently sitting at -39%. The graph below was created a week or so ago before the S&P had a recent run up of about 130 points. Regardless, we could be looking at a historical 1 year annual loss for the S&P.

Until Next Time,
- Steve

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Rays looking at some guys with questionable character traits

I know Maddon did an admirable job last year with Upton and his occasional lack of effort, but this might be a bit much. Apparently, during the Winter Meetings, the Rays have talked with Milton Bradley, Jason Giambi and, get this, Delmon Young!

Let's break down each of these...

Milton Bradley is a career .280 hitter with 6 teams in 11 seasons. He has long had anger management issues, but during a lunch with the Rays this past week, Maddon feels as if he has outgrown and was quoted as saying "people grow up, people change." Last year was his 1st season as an all-star, but his splits for the season showed a major drop-off in the 2nd half of the season due primarily to an injury. He could certainly shore up the DH and RF spots, but to be honest, he could probably explode at any minute. My take - PASS.


Giambi posted pretty good power numbers last year with a low batting average of only .247. Then again, oddly enough, Pena only hit .247 as well. His average has been in decline, but the power has stayed fairly consistent regarding homers and RBI's. For some reason I have always liked Giambi and feel like he might have another season or 2 in him. He is dependable in the DH spot and would be able to fill in for Pena here and there at 1B. Of course, the steroid allegations are going to follow him wherever he goes, but I believe he's a good guy. In fact, I met him once at a Chili's in Tampa, he was very cordial to my family. My take - Risky, but make a low offer and see if he takes it.

Delmon Young - This is really an interesting one. The guys has some character issues and was occasionally disruptive. I thought that was one of the reason's why they jettisoned him to the Twins last year? That deal was a big one for the Rays as they got Jason Bartlett and Matt Garza out of it. Sure, Delmon hit .290 last season, but for a guy that played in 152 games, he only hit 10 HR's with 69 RBI's. The rumor is that the Twins are not looking for starting pitching and a 3rd team would have to be involved, possibly the Rockies. The Rays would send either Edwin Jackson or Andy Sonnanstine to the Rockets, who would send 3rd baseman Garrett Atkins to the Twins and send Young back to Tampa. The upside here is still pretty high, but here's my take - Only do this if you can guarantee I won't look back years from now and analyze the trade based on the combination of both deals. What I mean is, I don't want Delmon to stink it up and then say it was basically a deal where we lost Sonnanstine or Jackson for Garza and Bartlett, catch my drift?

Now, here's my suggestion for the Rays... GO AFTER BARRY BONDS! That's right, I said it, go sign Barry Bonds. If you are willing to bring one or more of the 3 above into the fold, why not go get the most feared slugger of our era. Steroids or not, the guys is an on base machine and would be more than willing to DH if any team would just sign him to a deal. He said last year he would play for the league minimum and donate a substantial portion to charity. The guy doesn't want money, I don't think he cares about any more records, he wants a ring. He has had a few lengthy layoffs with the knee injury from 2005 where he only played 14 games then not playing at all last year. He turns 45 in July, but for some reason, I think he could post stats from the DH position that would blow away the guys listed above. Plus, think of the opportunities to drive in runs if he is always on base ahead of Pena, Longoria, etc. Lastly, Friedman and Maddon would have him sign a clause or something in his contract that doesn't allow big comfy recliners in the locker room. My Take - take a flyer and see what happens, it would probably be cheaper than any of the 3 above and would put more butts in the seats!

Until next time,
- Steve

Shark Diving gone awry

Whoa, just watched this video this morning. These guys were shark diving in a cage in Baja Mexico and a shark busted through the door of the cage!

There are 2 videos, one unedited and one that was edited. Both are below. Also, go to Youtube and click on the link to watch in high definition, much clearer if you have the bandwidth.

Unedited Original Footage


Edited Footage


Until Next Time,
- Steve

Friday, December 5, 2008

Top 10 Hardest NFL Hits

In response to the fact that the Bucs defense didn't hit any of the Panthers that hard last night, I came across this video collection on digg.com, here's a link to the story on digg (the original is on askmen.com).

http://digg.com/football/The_Top_10_Hardest_Hits_in_the_NFL_w_Video

And here are the videos/pics for each one:

10. Sean Taylor on Brian Moorman - 2006


9. Hines Ward on Keith Rivers - 2008


8. John Lynch on Chris Henry - 2006


7. Roger Craig on Tim Krumrie - 1989: Current Kansas City Chiefs defensive line coach Tim Krumrie overcame a tremendous leg injury during Super Bowl XXIII that could have ended his career. In a nose tackle with the Bengals, Krumrie was kneed by Roger Craig, causing a shattering of both his tibia and fibula. Though video footage of the hit is rare, it’s regarded as one of the hardest – and most graphic – hits in football history. At risk of going into shock, Krumrie initially refused to leave the locker room after he was carted off the field. He had surgery to implant a 15-inch steel rod into his leg.






6. Bart Scott on Ben Roethlisberger - 2006


5. Tanard Jackson on Dallas Clark - 2007


4. Lawrence Taylor on Joe Theismann - 1985


3. Sheldon Brown on Reggie Bush - 2007


2. Darrell Reid on Chris Henry - 2007


1. Jack Tatum on Darryl Stingley - 1978: Darryl Stingley’s tragic story is necessary to mention in discussions about both the worst NFL hits in history and the most serious injuries. A running back with the Patriots, Stingley was paralyzed on a shot from Jack Tatum’s forearm during a preseason game. The hit broke two vertebrae in Stingley’s neck, making him a quadriplegic. Though no penalty was ever called on the play, it’s considered controversial because of the way Tatum hit Stingley to the head. Stingley died in 2007 at the age of 55, due to complications of quadriplegia.

If you are seated next to Willy Wonka on your next flight...


If you are seated next to a man in a purple suit and top hat, please run away from him because Willy Wonka should not be on any flights due to prior convictions.

Nice huh... thought that might give you a laugh this afternoon.

Until next time,
- Steve

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

So, I guess we are in a recession?

Yesterday, almost all of the gains we achieved in the shortened Thanksgiving week were erased in a measly 6 hours. The S&P dropped 9%, what normally takes a full year to happen.

If you love numbers and historical analysis of the markets, the following New York Times article had tons of great info.

Click here for the article.

Until Next Time,
- Steve