Bloggin' Through the Playoffs - Pitching Rotation

Hi folks, day three of my bloggin' through the playoffs series.

Let's take a look at the pitching rotation for the AL Division Series, which is best of 5.

1st, a look at the stats for the 5 primary starters most of the season:

Pitcher	IP	W	L	ERA	WHIP	K's	QS
James Shields	215.0	14	8	3.56	1.15	160	22
Andy Sonnanstine	193.1	13	9	4.38	1.29	124	13
Matt Garza	184.2	11	9	3.70	1.24	128	15
Edwin Jackson	183.1	14	11	4.42	1.51	108	15
Scott Kazmir	152.1	12	8	3.49	1.27	166	13

I think probably everyone agrees that Shields, Garza and Kazmir will be in the rotation. As I mentioned in yesterday's post Kazmir hasn't looked right for a little while throwing so many pitches early in the games, but he deserves to be there. If Maddon goes with a 4 man rotation, which I think he probably will, the 4th spot comes down to two pitchers with very similar stats, Sonnanstine and Jackson. Jackson has 1 more win, but Sonnanstine has 2 fewer losses. Jackson's ERA is only .04 more than Sonnanstines, so that's really a wash. Interesting that Jackson has 2 more quality starts, but Sonnastine walks fewer than Jackson (showing in the much lower WHIP for Sonnanstine). After that, you have to look at the intangibles. Jackson has always been a little shaky. When he's on, he's very good, but when he's not... well, let's no go there! I think Jackson has better stuff, a more lively fastball, better breaking pitches, but less control. I am just going on a gut call here, but I think Jackson might be the man. I saw him pitch in a late season game against the Twins and he pitched into the 8th inning. In that inning, the crowd was pumped up and really behind him. For the last batter he faced that inning, he pumped 3 consecutive fastballs at 96, 97 and 98 MPH. I think with the atmosphere in the Trop (if that's where he gets to pitch), Jackson could really do some damage against a free swinging team like the White Sox. If it's the Twins, they are a bit more disciplined.

There you have it, lots of analysis of stats and I go with a gut call for Jackson.

What do you think? Let me know in the comments.

Go Rays!
- Steve

Bloggin' Through the Playoffs - 25 Man Roster

1st off - I am glad the Rays finished the season with a win today. Feels a little better going in to the playoffs.

As for the rosters, what do you think? Which 25 players should Rays management go with to get the team to the World Series? I think most of the questions probably center around 2 areas, those that were injured recently (Crawford, Percy, etc.) and pitching. Remember, they can submit a new 25 man roster for the Division Series.

Here are my thoughts...

Infielders / Outfielders / DH (13 Players)

1. Dioner Navarro - A given, an all-star this season and had the team's highest batting average.
2. Carlos Pena - Monster comeback after his injury. After coming off the DL on June 27th, he's hitting .261 with 11 HR and 67 RBI's.
3. Akinori Iwamura - Steady the whole season in the field and at bat.
4. Jason Bartlett - He has quietly gotten his average up to .286 and contributes with the glove and some spead on the bases with 20 SB.
5. Evan Longoria - What more can I say, the AL Rookie of the Year.
6. Willie Aybar - He can play almost any position on the field. Solid reserve.
7. B.J. Upton - He's back from his injury and I think the mid-season attitude problems are no more.
8. Carl Crawford - He's taken BP two days in a row and is making his case for the postseason. Bottom line - if he can play, he should be there. He has been the face of the franchise for years and deserves the spot. Take a look at this article from today.
9. Michel Hernandez / Shawn Riggans - If Riggans is off the DL, we go with him, otherwise Hernandez is an okay right handed bat, you have to have a backup catcher for Navarro.
10. Gabe Gross - this guy is clutch. He may be the starting right fielder next season and has been great in a platoon role this season.
11. Cliff Floyd - Provides a veteran presence the team needs in the 1st postseason for many players.
12. Fernando Perez - this guy can flat out fly on the basepaths. Plus, he seems to have a little pop from the right side which this team desparately needs.
13. Rocco Baldelli - Baldelli gets this spot over Hinske. Call me crazy on this, but before today, Hinske hadn't hit a homerun since August 18th, that's over a month. Also, I don't think it's a coincidence that Maddon played Baldelli in the last three games in a row in Detroit. With a few days to recover, he should be ready to contribute in the playoffs.
    

Pitchers (12 pitchers)

1. James Shields - All year long, probably the most consistent starting pitcher on the team
   
2. Scott Kazmir - Something just doesn't look right with Scotty, would you agree? However, he can have electric stuff. I think he needs to get back to his slider more and then work guys up the ladder and sit 'em down.
   
3. Matt Garza - That trade before the season when we sent Delmon Young to Minnesota for Garza and Bartlett looks pretty good doesn't it? Garza seems to have the right makeup for the postseason.
   
4. Andy Sonnanstine - It comes down to Sonnanstine and Jackson for the final starting spot if Maddon chooses a 4 man rotation. A coin flip if you ask me. Jackson probably has the best stuff on the staff and did win 14 games. I was at a game last week when he pitched into the 8th inning and had three consecutive pitches 96, 97 and 98 mph. Sonnanstine seems as if he was pitching all season with smoke and mirrors, but he did get 13 wins. What do you think?
   
5. Edwin Jackson - See above note on Sonnanstine, one of these is a starter and one is in the bullpen.
   
6. Grant Balfour - 1.54 ERA and 12.7 K's per 9 innings. Get's the ball and just throws hard.
   
7. J.P. Howell - 6-1 record and 2.22 ERA. Kept us in lots of games this season.
8. Dan Wheeler - Great job in the closer role when Percy went down.
9. Trever Miller - Consistent middle to long reliever.
10. Chad Bradford - Great mid-season pickup, with that submarine delivery, he can come in and get some important outs to get to the later innings.
11. David Price - Sure, he has no MLB postseason experience. Heck, he barely has any MLB experience at all. Yes, he is the number one prospect in the whole organization. And, finally, mark my words, Yes - he will exit this postseason in much the same way Francisco Rodriguez did in 2002 when the Angels won the world series and K-Rod became a huge success.
12. Troy Percival - This is a tough one. He basically willed the team to wins early in the season. But the leg injuries have hurt his velocity. Maybe he gets a chance to pitch in the final game of one of the playoff series and makes a heroic exit from the game. I'm kind of sentimental on this, but if it wasn't for him, we may not be here. His last three outings, each for 1 inning, he hasn't allowed any earned runs.
    

Notable absences

Other than Hinske, the only other position player who maybe could maybe play a big role is Zobrist. I actually feel bad for the guy. I think he was called up at least 4 seprate times this season. As for pitchers, a 12 man staff looks pretty good, but if we went with one more pitcher, then maybe Jason Hammel or Jeff Niemann? Then, you have to drop a position player, possibly Fernandez or Baldelli. Also, if Crawford cannot go in the 1st series, you probably do add the extra pitcher. Another absence, Jonny Gomes. I wish we could have a slot on the team like they do in hockey for the resident goon. The guy you want on your side if there's a brawl. Jonny would be that guy. However, when you look at his batting average (if you can find it, it's only .182), there really isn't a spot for him.

What do you think? Let me know in the comments.

Tomorrow we will talk about the pitching rotation.

Go Rays!
- Steve

Bloggin' Through the Playoffs - Season in Review

Hi everyone,

After an absence that has been way too long, I will be blogging every day that the Rays are active in the post season. I am considering today day number 1 since the actual schedule came out today and we know when the Rays are opening the postseason.

First, let's take a step back and review this truly magical summer.

It all started around Christmas time 2007 when I talked my buddy Smitty into looking at some season tickets for the Rays for 2008. We had started taking our two boys and the family to more games in 2007 and had a really good time. I had a feeling the team would be better, but no idea what was in store.

We settled on a 20 game package that included 14 home Saturday games and 6 weekday games. Here are some highlights...

1. I tried to count how many walk-off games we attended, and I think we were actually at about 6. For those that have attended a home game and seen the team come back in the 9th inning to win, it is electric.
2. For games that I personally attended, we only lost 2 the entire season.
3. Both of our boys are in a Carlos Pena Chevy Youth Baseball Commercial that aired during the season. Here's a link to some video I shot during the taping of the commercial. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cR6HL4zGHoU. Our 2 boys are in the front row in their little league D-Backs uniforms. Carlos Pena spent time talking to all of the kids and was an absolute joy to be around - he quickly became one of our favorite Rays.
4. At the 1st Yankee home series of the year, the boys were selected out of the entire stadium to sing Take Me Out to the Ballgame during the 7th inning stretch. Ironically, I was out of town traveling and not at the game, but my dad was there to share in the moment.
5. Probably the greatest highlight was when I received an invoice in the mail for playoff tickets. To be completely honest, I didn't even pay attention to the policy at the beginning of the year... I remember hoping for an 82 win season, to finish above .500, we got a whole lot more than that! Here is a pic of our uncut sheet of all possibly home playoff games, all the way through the World Series, it's a thing of beauty:

Tomorrow, I'll start discussing prospects for the 25 man roster for the AL Division Series. Feel free to leave some feedback in the comments section.

Go Rays!
- Steve